Hi guys!↵
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First of all, sorry for my poor english and short translation:)↵
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Now everyone could access rating [formulas](http://codeforces.me/blog/entry/20762), and there is some not obvious mathematic formulas. So, I decided to check probability formula(probability that the i-th participant has better result than the j-th participant). :↵
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There was a lot of rating codeforces rounds, so it's easy to calculate this value by existing results. I choose cf rounds №200 — №350 (separately for each division). To solve this problem I wrote java program ([sources](https://github.com/WslF/CF_win_probability)). After getting results I copy/paste it to Excel and get plots:↵
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for first division↵
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for second division↵
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Looks good, but lets try found something better:)↵
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Unfortunately this formula doesn't look scientific, so I a little bit change it:↵
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Now, lets build plots again↵
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for first division↵
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↵
↵
for second division↵
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↵
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Now it's closer:)
↵
First of all, sorry for my poor english and short translation:)↵
↵
↵
Now everyone could access rating [formulas](http://codeforces.me/blog/entry/20762), and there is some not obvious mathematic formulas. So, I decided to check probability formula(probability that the i-th participant has better result than the j-th participant)
↵
↵
↵
There was a lot of rating codeforces rounds, so it's easy to calculate this value by existing results. I choose cf rounds №200 — №350 (separately for each division). To solve this problem I wrote java program ([sources](https://github.com/WslF/CF_win_probability)). After getting results I copy/paste it to Excel and get plots:↵
↵
for first division↵
↵
↵
↵
for second division↵
↵
↵
↵
↵
Looks good, but lets try found something better:)↵
↵
↵
↵
Unfortunately this formula doesn't look scientific, so I a little bit change it:↵
↵
↵
↵
for second division↵
↵
↵
↵
Now it's closer:)
