With the new change, and the clarifications it is now possible to set without having talent. The following are claims which will be referenced:

1: We consider "competency" to be the ability to get 1600+, and "talent" to be the minimum description for someone that can get 1900+

2: We may safely assume that EV of reaching blue for anyone competent(1) is <=6 months, i.e. you should be expected to get blue every 6 months.

3: If you are not competent(1), this is likely not because of innate problems, you just need to practice more and put in effort.

4: I claim we can add two expected values together despite their independence, it seems to work but I have no proof for this. As such, For someone to reach blue k times with EV 6 months, we can expect them to reach blue k times in 6*k months.

5: As stated we interpret the threshold for being able to propose a contest to be

6: Unlike competency, talent is innate and I could write a whole research paper on it (let me know if you'd like to see this)

Note: this is not real code, and does not align with api, it just gives an understanding of what happens.

ct = 0;
for(int i = 0; i < ratedContest; i++)
{
    ct+=(newRating[i]>=1600);
}
return ct>=k;

Because of claims 4 and 5, anybody regardless of talent (assuming sufficient practice and effort put in) can have the ability to propose a contest.

TLDR: If you want it enough, you can get it, you just might have to spend a lot of time doing contests (like 5-6 years worth). It is no longer dependent on talent, but brute force.

Extra note: technically you are expected to get it in less than 6*k months because it becomes increasingly easier to stay blue if you are already blue, but this significantly complicates the calculation, so for simplicity we use 6*k.

I hope this helps (also if you are able to propose div3/4 and want to, please propose div3 not div4, div4s are boring)!

Also off topic but PLEASE STOP WRITING BLOGS ABOUT CHEATERS I BEG