CF ratings are unrelated to your IOI results. CF contests differ significantly from IOI contests.
❌ Wrong!
A higher CF rating, with a gap of at least 100, correlates with an 87% chance of achieving a better placement at IOI. In fact, the relationship between IOI placement and CF rating is strongly connected. The Pierson Correlation Coefficient for these two factors is -0.83.
Correlation between CF rating and IOI placement
❗ What is that outlier participant on the top-right? He is Jiyu Shen (PubabaOnO), with CF rating of 3000+, but it seems that he was unable to attend the contest 💔
Here are the statistics on CF ratings for each medal:
| Medal | Minimum | Median |
|---|---|---|
| 🥇 | 2029 | 2469 |
| 🥈 | 1501 | 2274 |
| 🥉 | 1637 | 2082 |
Additionally, I've discovered an interesting correlation: participants' ratings one year before IOI also correlate with their final ranks. By the way, some participants showed remarkable jumps in their ratings during that one-year period. Specifically, there were 4 participants with 1000+ growth in CF rating!
Correlation between CF rating a year before IOI and IOI placement
Based on this insight, I’ve trained a model that can predict your placement at IOI. If you’re curious about your predicted placement for IOI 2025, leave a comment! Note that as time passes, the model can determine your place more accurately. So you may comment again 6 months later to see the updated prediction.
Check out the similar blog for IOI 2019 here.
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